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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."